Uniting behind a grassroots candidate is a desirable objective, as Kevin James recommended last night when he announced his endorsement of Mary Benson for the CD2 race.
Unfortunately, the time for that was two or three months ago. Do not take this as a criticism of Kevin –he has covered this race as no other person or mainstream media outlet has. We should be grateful to him. I know I am.
At this stage in the campaign, the other candidates have too much time and effort invested to simply coalesce behind someone.
Kevin James’ endorsement of Mary Benson may sway some of the large pool of undecided voters to cast their ballots for her. Walter Moore’s e-mail blast will also help.
Can one of the grassroots candidates still make it to the runoff if the vote is split?
Possibly.
According to Kevin James, about 6,500 absentee ballots have already been filed. My gut feeling tells me that is where most of Krekorian’s support is buried. Certainly not all of that total, but a good piece. Whether he can build on that is debatable. Nevertheless, he will be in the runoff.
Not all seven grassroots candidates will register enough support to achieve a credible showing. Perhaps only four of the seven may, including Mary, but if collectively they can preempt enough votes from going to the top two, anything can happen.
Essel will probably do well south of Ventura Boulevard, close to her real neighborhood. That will not be enough to get her to the big dance. It may not even be good enough for fourth or fifth place. She could end up being the most expensive loser on a per vote basis since Mike Huffington.
With a couple of exceptions, the rest of the district is a battleground. The exceptions are Valley Village, which will probably vote heavily for Pete Sanchez, and Valley Glen, which will probably favor Krekorian. However, there is much more to the district than these two neighborhoods.
As I see it there is a five way race for the number two spot, with Chris lagging towards the rear of the group and Tamar around the top.
Beyond that it is all speculation.
It’s interesting to see all this speculation. Are you just assuming based on your gut and what you are seeing in the community? Or do you have actual voter data to base your speculations on? Have you made any phone calls or knocked on doors on behalf of a candidate in this election?
Imagine this, even this late in the game, the vast majority of CD voters have never heard of most of these candidates. Most voters don’t read the blogs covering this race, nor do they attend the forums, or follow CD 2 election news closely.
They do get mail and phone calls though and I guarantee you that even seemingly dysfunctional campaigns like Essels have been phoning, knocking on doors, and sending tons of mail for quite a while now. If you want to speculate who’s going to do well here, think about which candidate has run the most active field campaign and you will get your winner.
My reply: It is a combination of speculation, gut feelings and talking to various people throughout the district- and not just activists either. The vast number of people who receive the mailers will simply trash them and won’t bother voting. The people who are motivated enough to vote will do some homework. I believe the Daily News endorsement is far more important than either the Times or Kevin James’ nod. The DN is worth a dozen mailers.-Paul Hatfield
and No Kevin James endorsement won’t matter in CD 2 because KJ is way too conservative for the average Angeleno, much less the average CD 2 voter.
My reply: the endorsement will not be a game winner, but could push some votes into Mary’s column. In a tight race for the #2 spot, with a low turnout, that could make a difference. -Paul Hatfield