Posts Tagged ‘patty lopez’

Last Thursday evening, I had the pleasure of attending a debate between two gentlemen in the race to replace termed-out Fran Pavley in the 27th SD. It was sponsored by the American Association of University Women (San Fernando Valley Branch), NOW and the League of Women Voters. Representatives from four West Valley Neighborhood Councils were there.

Henry Stern, who serves on Pavley’s staff, and Steve Fazio, a long-time small businessman in the San Fernando Valley, faced each other at the Westfield Mall, fielding questions from a panel and the audience.

The civility was refreshing.

The 27th is not my district. My reason for being there was to hear where the two opponents stood on California’s misguided and bloated high-speed rail project, particularly Mr. Stern’s view.

I met with him shortly before the primary. We discussed a number of issues, including HSR. I was impressed by his overall pragmatism, especially when it came to transportation priorities.

He stated then that he was supportive of commuter rail in general, but the HSR project was poorly conceived and planned.

I was wondering if he would stick to that position, especially when Lt. Governor Gavin Newsome recently flipped his stance. Perhaps Newsome buckled under pressure from the unions and contractors who stand to benefit from this financial debacle on rails, a project that is absorbing critical cap-and-trade funds.

If anything, Stern doubled down and recommended that the plan be put before the voters again.

He emphasized that HSR was putting the cart before the horse. What good would it be if we did not first develop intra-city transportation?

To be fair, Fazio also voiced strong opposition.

But if we are going to kill HSR, it would die a quicker death if there were more Democrats behind the effort to do so. That’s why candidates such as Stern and Patty Lopez, who is running for re-election in the 39th Assembly District, could further nudge others within their party to stop it before there is too much more money wasted.

Patty Lopez is engaged in a stalwart campaign, a rematch against party-insider favorite Raul Bocanegra. Despite her solid voting record along party lines, as well as getting several bills important to her constituents passed, the Democratic Party is supporting her opponent.

I’s all about money. Bocanegra spent lavishly on his colleagues’ campaigns in the 2014 election. He was an ATM for established members of the legislature. You don’t mess around with one of the good old boys, especially when he raises dough.

Yet, she stands a chance.

Bocanegra garnered only 44% of the primary vote this time compared to 62% in 2014 – the same year Lopez upset him in the general election. Perhaps money doesn’t buy as many votes these days. A measurable majority of voters did not support him.

A passage in a San Francisco Chronicle article about Lopez says it all:

“It’s nice to have an outsider in Sacramento,” said Lea-Ann Tratten, political director for the Consumer Attorneys of California, one of the few interest groups that have donated to Lopez.

“It’s refreshing. And frankly I think we need more of that. But that’s not how Sacramento works. It’s very much an insider game.”

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It is no surprise that Assembly Member Patty Lopez advanced to the finals in the 39th AD. More on that later in the article.

Henry Stern’s path to the general election in the 27th Senate District was less certain.

There was no doubt that Republican Steve Fazio would make it, but most figured a Democrat would come in second due to the large field of Democratic candidates carving up the vote. He finished with 26.5% of the ballots cast, behind Fazio’s 37.5%, but well ahead of his chief Democratic challenger, Janice Kamenir-Reznik.

Reznik held an advantage over Stern early in the evening when absentee ballots weighed heavily.

Two key endorsements abandoned Stern for Kamenir-Reznik: former County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky and current Supervisor Sheila Kuehl. Despite those two big name defections, Stern prevailed and appears to have a lock on winning the general. Fazio’s support is unlikely to grow significantly to where he can give Stern a run for his money. Supporters of the other candidates are likely to line up behind Stern, who is a senior staff member of Fran Pavley, the termed-out, current office holder.

The race makes you wonder about the value of endorsements from individuals

I had the pleasure of discussing a number of issues with Stern a few weeks ago. He is someone who appears to be receptive, especially on issues with a direct impact locally.

Patty Lopez, the Rocky of local politicians, appears to face a similar challenge to the one which confronted her back in 2014. Her opponent, Raul Bocanegra, a favorite of the establishment, with the backing of the State Democratic Party, and who outspent Lopez 10 to 1, finished the night with 45% of the vote. Lopez garnered 27%.

With that kind of spending and structural advantage, earning measurably less than a majority is unimpressive and points to vulnerability in the general for Bocanegra. He had almost 63% of the vote in the 2014 primary before falling to the Lopez’ indomitable grassroots push in the general, when he ran as the incumbent. He starts off in a weaker position this time around.

If Lopez can attract support from the pool of voters who supported other fine candidates in the primary, then Bocanegra could be in for a long night on November 8. A loss would all but destroy his aspirations to regain a seat anywhere. It is hard to raise money from deep pockets when you have burned through a small fortune in back-to-back losing efforts.

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It is the holiday season and the networks will be rolling out Christmas classics soon.

Miracle on 34th Street is usually among the first to show up on our home screens. The film juxtaposes commercialism with sentimentalism, not unlike the contrasting approaches of the opposing candidates in the 39th AD.

Well, Thanksgiving and Christmas arrived a little early for the good people of the 39th Assembly District.

Almost an unknown and virtually unfunded LAUSD parent volunteer, Patty Lopez, holds what might be a safe lead with another tally of provisional and mail-in ballots scheduled for Monday. The race was one of the tightest in memory.

Her opponent, Raul Bocanegra, the incumbent for the Assembly seat, had cash to spare, even playing Santa Claus for his friends running in other races deemed to be competitive.

How Lopez put herself in a position to snatch the seat right from under him will be debated for a long time.

In my view, her victory – if it holds up – will not be a template others can easily apply successfully.

It may have been a confluence of factors – a perfect storm in an electoral sense.

Party affiliation was not a factor; both are Democrats.

Could it have been affinity?

Lopez projects a much friendlier and trusting persona. Her cultural roots probably helped – she was born in Mexico and her Spanish dialect may have been comforting to the voters in the district, which counts many immigrants from Mexico in the registration rolls.

By contrast, Bocanegra looks like he was cut in the mold of a hand-picked PRI candidate. I am not implying he follows the PRI’s lackadaisical approach to dealing with corruption, but were the voters of the 39th wary of anyone who comes across as an apparatchik of a party machine?

Bocanegra made his work on enacting credits for film production a focal point of his campaign. All well and good for the industry, but no measurable impact on the district.

Bocanegra may have been a victim of his own success in the primary where he finished 40 points ahead of Lopez. Arrogance can be a politician’s worst enemy and the incumbent most likely thought he was bulletproof as a result. Even Bob Hertzberg did not take his State Senate campaign against a financially strapped unknown lightly. Mailers, neighborhood council and HOA appearances were a staple of Big Bob’s strategy right to the end. He threw in more than a few hugs, too.

Assuming a victory is confirmed, how will Ms. Lopez be received by the Assembly’s leadership, not to mention Bocanegra’s colleagues? Will they toss her a bone, assign her to an obscure committee or one where the chair suppresses her input? After all, Lopez knocked off one of their own.

If so, the Democrats do so at their own risk. Lopez is now a very public figure in light of the publicity she has received for her improbable showing. They cannot afford to disrespect her without accusations of gender and even ethnic discrimination.

More importantly, how will Lopez deal with success?

I certainly do not see her even nudging the ideological mix of the Assembly. Will she fall prey to money from lobbyists?

Ms. Lopez would be starting off with a clean slate if the current results hold up. That’s her ace in the hole. She owes nothing to anyone except her constituents. Let’s see how she plays her hand.

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