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Posts Tagged ‘CAHSR’

As much as the California High Speed Rail Authority would like to hold its own version of the Golden Spike ceremony that marked the completion of the first transcontinental railroad, it is more likely to experience rusty nails driven into its already beleaguered and overly-optimistic business plan.

The latest derailment affecting the timeline – and undoubtedly the cost – is a two-year delay in completing environmental reviews of the project.

This news comes on top of growing concerns about tunneling, not just in the San Gabriel Mountains,  but the Pacheco Pass connecting San Jose with the San Joaquin Valley. Even if the almost 14 miles of tunnel is bored, it could be a budget-buster and throw the project even further behind. In view of this challenge, attracting bond investors will be difficult for this segment; yields would have to be enhanced to generate investment, diminishing the already slim prospects of the system operating in the black.

When voters approved $9 billion in bonds in 2008 to start the project, the measure stated that operating subsidies from public funds would not be permitted.  But we are on the fast track to just such support.  The costs, which will most certainly blow through the current estimate of $64 billion, could easily triple.  Although large overruns are common on major projects (i.e., Boston’s Big Dig was over five-times the original estimate), the public was misled as to this possibility with HSR.

So far, nothing has been delivered according to promises made in selling the concept to the voters – not even close.  Even the train speed has been downgraded.

I happen to be a fan of rail travel.  I used Amtrak and Metrolink to commute from LA to Irvine.  I often thought how much more comfortable and reliable the trip could have been had the trains been able to run on dedicated tracks, free from freight traffic delays.  The current engines can run at 100 miles per hour.  While not high speed, there would be no reason why most commuters from the far suburbs of Los Angeles couldn’t reach downtown in about an hour.

Instead of pouring billions into HSR, a system which will serve a relatively very thin segment of the traveling public, we can relieve much traffic from our clogged freeways in Southern California by investing in the region’s rail infrastructure – far more than could be reduced on I-5 through the San Joaquin Valley by the bullet train.

A similar investment could be made in the Bay Area with the same results.

There would be no costly tunneling in either market.

Our next governor should kill this vanity project.  Candidate Newsom was once on record as opposing  the project.…maybe he will come back to his senses.  His key opponent, former mayor Villaraigosa, has always been for it.

The voters should demand that both candidates explain just how they plan to fund it.

 

 

 

 

 

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Governor Brown is making an appeal to the Trump administration to transfer oversight of environmental reviews of the high-speed rail project from the federal government to the state.

If this strategy sounds familiar, it is.  The City of Los Angeles allows developers to arrange their own EIRs.

Brown has a vested personal interest in pushing HSR.  It’s his vanity project.  It will probably put the state in a position where it will have to subsidize the system, in direct violation of Proposition 1A, as approved by the voters in 2008.

He and his colleagues, along with other politically connected interest groups who stand to benefit from the most expensive folly in history, are hell-bent to complete the project, regardless of the cost and the diversion of funds from far more critical needs.  Do not think for one moment that the state will take an unbiased approach in evaluating the results of an EIR under its control.

There is no private investor interest in the project.  That is unlikely to change even if an initial segment, constructed over the easiest terrain and serving markets with the least possible need, were to be completed. The risks of tunneling through faults in the San Gabriel Mountains, essential for fulfilling the promise of service between San Francisco and Los Angeles, will be too risky to attract sensible investors unless the state were to offer substantial guarantees and establish reserve funds.  Such a move would put California on the hook for losses. Like a subsidy, that would contradict taxpayer protections in 1A.

CAHSR will collapse under its own weight and from voter frustration with pouring more money in what will be a system which grossly underdelivers for the costs.

There is no scenario where it can be built and operated within the limits of Prop 1A.  The sooner the governor and legislature put aside their personal ambition and admit it will be a fiscal failure, the more likely the state will be able to afford far more pressing capital improvements.

There is much work to do; we do not have endless sources of affordable debt and tax revenue. Choices have to be made, and HSR is near the bottom.

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California has got its own version of a Runaway Train, a 1985 Oscar-nominated movie about escaped convicts who steal a train. It does not end well, as the out-of-control consist hurdles towards a violent end, with the lives of the convicts and their hostages at stake.

The California High Speed Rail Commission is run by the equivalent of convicts who are taking the state’s taxpayers on a ride to a disaster of the financial kind.

Proposition 1A, passed in 2008 by a margin of 5 percentage points, stipulated the following:
the train system would have to be financially viable, enable trains to maintain headways of five minutes in each direction, operate without a subsidy, have all construction funds identified for an operating segment before breaking ground and travel between Los Angeles and San Francisco in two hours and 40 minutes.

It has failed on most of these requirements and the others are in doubt.

A blended system, that is HSR would have to share tracks with slower freight and current passenger service, would make it very difficult to reach the promised speeds, times and headways, not to mention that freight traffic is harder on the rails, which translates to higher maintenance. If you have ever ridden on shared tracks used by heavy freight, smooth is not the word to describe the ride; delays are a certainty.

Only half the construction costs for the proposed first segment from San Jose to the Central Valley are available. Funding is also challenged by the reliability of cap and trade funds, an important piece of the already anemic available capital.

Also in doubt is the avoidance of an operating subsidy from the government. Technically, that would be enough to kill the project as it would be in clear violation of the bond covenants. It was hinted by a peer review committee that the state might have to make financial guarantees to investors in order to entice them into buying bonds backed by revenue, but that would amount to a commitment to subsidize an operating deficit.

Although Sacramento Superior Court Judge Michael Kenny dismissed a lawsuit aimed at stopping construction, the reason was because there are “too many unknown variables.” In other words, he is not convinced that the project is viable at this stage. His decision appears to err on the side of due process, giving CAHSR time to back up its optimism.

But time is running short for CAHSR to put its money where its mouth is. The lawsuits will continue, cost overruns will pile up and public pressure to kill the project will grow, especially in Southern California and the Central Valley.

If not stopped soon, the people of California will be left with only part of a system, serving only a minority of the population, at a cost much higher than promised for the entire system, as promised in Proposition 1A. According to CAHASR Chair Dan Richard,this is what passes as “delivering what the public voted for.”

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